Interest is now the government's second-largest expense. It passed the Pentagon without a vote.
Summary
Eight months into fiscal 2026, Treasury's own ledger shows $722.7 billion in net interest — more than national defense ($630.9 billion), more than Medicare ($676.8 billion), behind only Social Security. Nobody appropriated it: the average rate on the federal debt has more than doubled in five years, from 1.61% to 3.41%, as cheap pandemic-era bonds mature into a higher-rate world, and every refinancing ratchets the line up mechanically. The 12-month deficit is back to $1.8 trillion — with June's customs receipts turning negative as tariff refunds flow from February's Supreme Court ruling, and corporate tax receipts down 30%.
The documents
Four sources, each read or pulled directly. The ledger is the Monthly Treasury Statement, Table 9 (May 2026 edition — outlays by function, fiscal year to date), retrieved from Treasury's Fiscal Data API. The rate history is Treasury's Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities dataset, same API. The audited totals are 's audit of the FY2025 U.S. government consolidated financial statements — roughly $987 billion of interest on debt held by the public in fiscal 2025, on about $30 trillion of public debt plus $7.4 trillion of intragovernmental holdings. The run-rate context is 's Monthly Budget Review for June 2026 (released July 9): a $1.4 trillion deficit through nine months, $126 billion in June alone, $1.8 trillion over the trailing twelve months.
The money
View data as table
| Social Security | $1,097.0B | prior-year FYTD $1,039.8B |
|---|---|---|
| Net interest | $722.7B | prior-year FYTD $664.4B — up $58.3B |
| Medicare | $676.8B | prior-year $699.5B (timing shifts) |
| Health (chiefly Medicaid) | $665.2B | prior-year $635.0B |
| National defense | $630.9B | prior-year $612.9B |
| All functions, total | $8,557.5B | prior-year $8,327.8B |
Eight-month net interest of $722.7 billion annualizes to roughly $1.08 trillion — a pace consistent with the audited FY2025 figure and 's full-year projections. The year-over-year increase, $58.3 billion, is larger than the entire FYTD budget of the Department of Justice function ($68.4 billion) is in total. And "net interest" is the smaller of the government's two official interest numbers: it nets out interest the Treasury pays to its own trust funds. The gross interest expense — the number on the audited books — runs about a quarter-trillion dollars higher, because Social Security's and the military retirement funds' holdings earn interest that is a cost to Treasury even though it stays inside the government.
The ratchet
View data as table
| June 2021 | 1.61% | pandemic-era refinancing trough |
|---|---|---|
| June 2022 | 1.8% | |
| June 2023 | 2.76% | |
| June 2024 | 3.28% | |
| June 2025 | 3.3% | |
| June 2026 | 3.41% | still below new-issue yields — the ratchet isn't done |
This is the mechanism the appropriations process never touches. In June 2021 the government's blended borrowing cost was 1.609 percent; five Junes later it is 3.409 percent — not because anyone raised it, but because roughly a third of the marketable debt matures within a year or two and rolls over at market yields. The average remains below the yield on newly issued debt, which is why the line kept climbing in 2025 and 2026 even as the Federal Reserve's policy rate came off its peak. The stock is what does the damage: at $30 trillion of public debt, each tenth of a percentage point on the average is roughly $30 billion a year, indefinitely.
The cross-examination
Read the deficit's own components against the headlines about it. Through April, the fiscal-2026 deficit ran $94 billion below the prior year, a statistic that traveled widely; by June's close the nine-month deficit was $35 billion above it. The reversal is in the receipt lines of the same Treasury table. Customs duties collected $188.6 billion in eight months — 132 percent above the prior year — and then went negative in June, as refunds began flowing from the February Supreme Court ruling on the tariffs; the revenue that flattered the spring comparisons is now partially repayable. Corporate income tax receipts are down 30 percent, $209.8 billion against $298.2 billion. Meanwhile the interest line rose on schedule, indifferent to all of it. That is the asymmetry the documents record: the deficit's improvements were contingent and partially reversible; its largest growth item is contractual.
What happens next
The June Monthly Treasury Statement — the ninth-month official ledger — publishes this week, and the fiscal year closes September 30 with projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit. The refinancing calendar does the rest: Treasury's quarterly refunding announcements set how much of the rollover lands in bills versus long bonds, the one lever that changes the ratchet's speed. The audited FY2026 interest figure arrives with the consolidated financial statements next spring — the same statements cannot render an opinion on, for reasons BlackLeaf has covered.
The takeaway
- Second place, by contract. $722.7 billion in eight months — past defense, past Medicare — without a program, an agency, or a vote. Only Social Security is bigger, and on current paths the crossover estimates are measured in years, not decades.
- The ratchet is arithmetic, not policy. A 3.41 percent average against higher new-issue yields means interest grows even in a world of frozen deficits and steady rates; each 0.1 point ≈ $30 billion a year at the current stock.
- Judge deficit news by its composition. This year's "improvement" was tariff receipts now being refunded by court order and a corporate-tax collapse in the other direction; the structural line kept compounding underneath.
All figures are from Treasury's Fiscal Data API, 's audit of the FY2025 consolidated financial statements, and 's June 2026 Monthly Budget Review, as cited in-line. "Net interest" is the MTS budget function (net of intragovernmental receipts); the audited gross interest expense is larger. FYTD figures cover October 2025 through May 2026; June data publish in the next MTS.
Sources
- U.S. Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement, Table 9 (May 2026), via the Fiscal Data API — outlays by function FYTD ($722.7B net interest, $630.9B defense, $1,097.0B Social Security), receipts by source (customs $188.6B, corporate $209.8B). fiscaldata.treasury.gov
- U.S. Treasury, Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities, via the Fiscal Data API — total interest-bearing debt average rate, June 2021–June 2026. fiscaldata.treasury.gov
- U.S. Government Accountability Office, Independent Auditor's Report on the FY2025 and FY2024 U.S. Government Consolidated Financial Statements — ~$987B interest on debt held by the public; ~$30T public debt and $7.4T intragovernmental holdings. fiscal.treasury.gov (PDF)
- Congressional Budget Office, Monthly Budget Review: June 2026 (July 9, 2026) — nine-month deficit $1.4T (+$35B), June deficit $126B, trailing-12-month deficit $1.8T; June customs receipts negative on tariff refunds. cbo.gov/publication/61982
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The finding, in one paragraph: every spending fight in Washington is about the discretionary budget, and the line item that has quietly outgrown almost all of it is the one no committee marks up. Net interest on the federal debt — $722.7 billion in the first eight months of this fiscal year, by the Treasury's own monthly statement — now exceeds the entire national defense function and the entire Medicare function over the same period. It grows for a reason that has nothing to do with this year's deficit: the government's old debt, issued in the 1-to-2 percent world of 2020–2021, matures on schedule and is refinanced at today's rates. The average rate Treasury pays has climbed from 1.61 percent to 3.41 percent in five years and is still below what new debt costs, which means the ratchet has not finished turning even if deficits and yields never move again.