BlackLeafwatch the watchmen
Massachusetts state budget

Massachusetts Budgeted $2.4 Billion From Its Millionaire Surtax. Ten Months In, It Had $3.1 Billion.

Summary

Massachusetts collected more than $3.1 billion from its 4% surtax on seven-figure incomes in the first ten months of fiscal 2026 — 20% ahead of last year's pace, and already past the $2.4 billion lawmakers budgeted to spend, according to the state's Department of Revenue. Part of that money keeps a subsidized child care program running that employs more than 41,000 early educators, per the state's own budget office.

By Vindex · July 10, 2026

In November 2022, Massachusetts voters added a 4% surtax on the portion of anyone's annual income above roughly $1 million — a threshold that rises with inflation each year, $1.053 million for 2024 and $1.083 million for 2025. Collections started in January 2023. The "Fair Share Amendment" doesn't let the Legislature spend the money however it likes: it is constitutionally dedicated to "quality public education and affordable public colleges and universities, and for the repair and maintenance of roads, bridges, and public transportation." Four fiscal years in, the tax has a track record — and it keeps beating the number the state itself expected it to hit.

FY2026 Fair Share revenue
$3.1B+
+20% year over year vs 10-month pace, FY2025
FY2026 GAA appropriation
$2.4B
$1.7B education / $712M transit
Educators paid via C3 grants
41,000+
$475M FY2026 Fair Share funding

The forecast keeps losing

Every year, Massachusetts budget writers set a "consensus revenue estimate" for the surtax before the fiscal year starts, then cap Fair Share spending at that number — a deliberately conservative move, since the tax was brand new and volatile income from capital gains and bonuses is hard to project. Every year so far, actual collections have blown past it.

In fiscal 2024, the state estimated $1.0 billion and the Department of Revenue ultimately certified $2.46 billion — more than double. In fiscal 2025, the estimate was $1.3 billion; the final tally, according to Executive Office for Administration and Finance officials, came in around $3.0 billion. For fiscal 2026, the state finally raised its estimate to $2.4 billion — and by April 2026, ten months into the year, CommonWealth Beacon reported collections had already topped $3.1 billion, 20% ahead of the same ten-month stretch of fiscal 2025, a pace Raise Up Massachusetts attributed to the Department of Revenue's own certification. The full fiscal year closed June 30, 2026; DOR won't certify the final number until October.

The Fair Share surtax has out-earned its own budget estimate every year
Consensus revenue estimate vs. actual collections, by fiscal year, $ billions
FY2024 estimate
$1B
FY2024 actual
$2.5B
FY2025 estimate
$1.3B
FY2025 actual
$3B
FY2026 estimate
$2.4B
FY2026 actual (10 months)
$3.1B
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office for Administration and Finance (FY2024 actual, FY2024–26 estimates); Streetsblog Massachusetts, citing EOAF officials (FY2025 actual); CommonWealth Beacon and Raise Up Massachusetts, citing DOR certification (FY2026 actual, 10-month, partial year)
View data as table
Fair Share revenue: estimate vs. actual, FY2024–FY2026
FY2024 estimate$1BConsensus revenue estimate set before the fiscal year began
FY2024 actual$2.46BDOR-certified, October 2024
FY2025 estimate$1.3BConsensus revenue estimate
FY2025 actual$3BFinal, per EOAF officials; DOR certification due Oct. 2025
FY2026 estimate$2.4BConsensus revenue estimate; also the FY2026 GAA spending cap
FY2026 actual (10 months)$3.1BJuly 2025–April 2026 only; fiscal year not yet certified

Two-thirds to schools, the rest to transit

The surtax can only fund education and transportation, so every budget year forces a split between the two. In the enacted fiscal 2026 budget, Massachusetts appropriated $2.4 billion in Fair Share revenue — matching that year's consensus estimate almost exactly — with roughly seventy cents of every dollar going to education and the rest to transportation, per the Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center's analysis of the enacted General Appropriations Act.

Where the FY2026 Fair Share dollar went
Enacted General Appropriations Act, fiscal year 2026, $ millions
Fair Share revenue appropriated, FY2026$2.4BEducation programs$1.7BTransportation programs$712M
Source: Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center, analysis of the FY2026 General Appropriations Act (enacted July 2025)
View data as table
FY2026 Fair Share appropriation by category
Education programs$1.70BFY2026 GAA, enacted July 2025
Transportation programs$712MFY2026 GAA, enacted July 2025
Total appropriated$2.41Bvs. $2.4B consensus revenue estimate for FY2026

The education side, $1.7 billion, funds the Commonwealth Cares for Children (C3) early-education grant program at $475 million, universal free school meals, Chapter 70 aid to local school districts, and tuition- free community college through MassEducate and MassReconnect. The transportation side, $712 million, funds the MBTA, the state's 15 regional transit authorities, and MassDOT road and bridge work — on top of a separate $250 million Fair Share pledge that unlocked $1.1 billion in additional MBTA and MassDOT borrowing capacity between fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2029, per the state's own budget office.

The workforce riding on it

Follow the $475 million C3 line to where it actually lands, and it lands on payroll. As of the most recent breakdown the state has published, C3 grants — combining Fair Share revenue with General Fund dollars — support 7,900 child care programs statewide, sustain more than 25,000 licensed seats, and employ more than 41,000 educators. A related, larger pool of state child care financial assistance — also funded partly by the surtax — now reaches more than 65,000 low-income children and their families.

What Fair Share-backed child care grants support
Massachusetts, most recent published figures (early 2025)
Child care programs funded
7,900
Licensed seats sustained
25,000
Educators employed
41,000
Children in financial-assistance families
65,000
Source: Massachusetts Executive Office for Administration and Finance, 'Fair Share Two Years Later: Investments and Impacts'
View data as table
C3 program and child care financial assistance reach
Child care programs funded7,900C3 grant recipients statewide
Licensed seats sustained25,000More than — statewide
Educators employed41,000More than — across those 7,900 programs
Children in financial-assistance families65,000More than — via CCFA, Fair Share + General Fund

The transportation side has its own people-facing numbers: fare-free service now runs on 13 of Massachusetts's 15 regional transit authorities, and statewide RTA ridership rose from 13.7 million rides in fiscal 2021 to 22.5 million in fiscal 2023. On the education side, the MassReconnect program for adults 25 and older grew enrollment 45% in its first year, and combined with MassEducate's free community college, drove a 14% overall enrollment increase by fall 2024 — figures the state's budget office reports directly in the same document that supplies the C3 numbers above.

The takeaway

  • The surtax has never once undershot. Every fiscal year since collections began, actual Fair Share revenue has exceeded the consensus estimate the state budgeted against — by more than double in fiscal 2024, and already 20% ahead of pace ten months into fiscal 2026.
  • The money is legally boxed in, and the state still splits it predictably. Roughly seventy cents of every FY2026 dollar went to education, the rest to transportation — a ratio set by legislative choice within a constitutional mandate that only names the two categories, not the split.
  • A single grant line supports tens of thousands of jobs. The $475 million C3 early-education appropriation is one budget line; the people behind it are more than 41,000 educators across 7,900 programs, per the state's own count.

Fiscal 2026 revenue and spending figures cover a year that closed June 30, 2026, but has not yet been finally certified by the Department of Revenue (certification is due in October); the 10-month figure cited here is a floor on the full-year total, not the final number. C3 workforce and program-reach figures are the most recent detailed breakdown Massachusetts has published, dated to the FY2026 H.1 budget cycle (early 2025) — later than the FY2026 GAA dollar figures cited elsewhere in this piece, but the program was made permanent in that same budget and funded at a comparable $475 million in the FY2026 GAA that followed.

Sources

  • Massachusetts Executive Office for Administration and Finance, Fair Share Two Years Later: Investments and Impacts (FY2026 H.1 Budget Brief) — FY2023–FY2024 certified revenue, FY2024–FY2026 consensus estimates, the constitutional dedication language, C3 program reach (7,900 programs, 41,000+ educators, 25,000+ seats), child care financial assistance reach (65,000+ children), MBTA/CTF bonding capacity, RTA ridership, and MassReconnect/MassEducate enrollment growth. budget.digital.mass.gov
  • Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center, MassBudget's Analysis of the 2026 General Appropriations Act — the enacted FY2026 Fair Share appropriation split, $1.7 billion to education and $712 million to transportation. massbudget.org
  • Streetsblog Massachusetts, "Fair Share" Millionaire Tax Continues to Exceed Expectations (Jan. 14, 2026) — the final fiscal 2025 collection total (~$3.0 billion), attributed to Executive Office for Administration and Finance officials. mass.streetsblog.org
  • CommonWealth Beacon, Surtax fueling early ed expansion, but will it last? — the fiscal 2026 ten-month collection total (over $3.1 billion through April 2026) and prior-year comparison. commonwealthbeacon.org
  • Raise Up Massachusetts, DOR: Fair Share Revenue Up 20% Over First 10 Months of FY26 — the year-over-year growth rate, citing the Department of Revenue's own surtax certification. raiseupma.org
  • Massachusetts High Technology Council, Don't Call it the 'Millionaires' Tax: Inflation is Raising the Bar — the surtax rate (4%) and the inflation-adjusted income threshold ($1.053M for 2024, $1.083M for 2025). mhtc.org
Weekly digest: the most-read systems, in brief. Mondays.

Comments

Always open. Logged-in readers can annotate paragraphs in place.

Loading comments…
or log in to comment under your account