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Food assistance

SNAP enrollment has fallen by 4.7 million since 2025 — and in November, the program almost didn't pay at all

Summary

Federal SNAP spending topped $101.7 billion in FY2025, serving over 40 million Americans. Since the 2025 reconciliation law took effect, enrollment has fallen to 37.4 million — down 4.7 million from 2025's average. In between, USDA told states not to pay November benefits during the government shutdown, the first disruption in the program's 60-year history, until a federal judge ordered it to pay in full.

By Locusta · July 9, 2026

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program has never, in six decades of operation, failed to pay a benefit on time — not through recessions, not through prior shutdowns. That streak ended in October 2025, not because the money ran out, but because the agency holding it chose not to spend what it had.

FY2025 federal SNAP spending
$101.7B
93% goes directly to benefits
Participation, March 2026
37.4M
down 4.7M from 2025's average
10-year projected federal cut
$186.7B
CBO estimate

Follow the benefit

's money mostly isn't overhead — it's the benefit itself, paid out at amounts set annually and scaled by household size.

Maximum monthly SNAP benefit, by household size
FY2026, lower 48 states and D.C.
1-person household
$298
4-person household
$994
Source: USDA Food and Nutrition Service, FY2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustments
View data as table
Maximum monthly benefit by household size
1-person household$298/momaximum benefit, FY2026
4-person household$994/momaximum benefit, FY2026

A single person can receive up to $298 a month; a family of four, up to $994 — $248 per person, the baseline the whole program scales from. Of the $101.7 billion the federal government spent on in FY2025, 93% went straight to benefits like these; the rest covered administration, employment and training programs, and monitoring. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, cuts an estimated $186.7 billion from that spending over the next decade — mostly by expanding work requirements to adults age 55-64 and parents of children over 14, and by shifting benefit costs to states with high payment-error rates starting in FY2028.

The same system, counted in people

Spending projections describe a policy. Participation counts describe what actually happened to the people the policy touched.

SNAP participation: 2025 average vs. March 2026
People participating monthly, nationwide
2025 average
42,000,000
March 2026
37,400,000
Source: CBO February 2026 baseline (2025 average); Center on Budget and Policy Priorities SNAP tracker, citing USDA data (March 2026)
View data as table
SNAP participation, 2025 vs. March 2026
2025 average42.0Mpeople participating monthly
March 202637.4Mpeople participating, most recent data

Participation fell from a 2025 average of about 42 million people to 37.4 million by March 2026 — a decline of 4.7 million, nearly 10%, in the months since the reconciliation law's provisions began taking effect. That drop is already outrunning the 's own forecast, which had projected an average of 39.3 million participants for 2026. In the 13 states with public data on the breakdown, roughly 808,000 children have been removed from rolls since July 2025.

A system that almost didn't pay

None of that decline required a single missed payment. The shutdown that began October 1, 2025 came close to causing one anyway. paid October benefits on schedule, but on October 10 it directed states not to issue November benefits at all — the first time in the program's history that guidance, not funding, was the reason a payment might not go out. followed up on October 24 by confirming it would not tap roughly $6 billion in contingency funds it had available specifically to keep running through a lapse in annual appropriations. Nearly two dozen states sued on October 28. A federal judge ordered to pay November benefits in full, and the agency complied the next day — not because it found new money, but because a court told it to use money it already had.

The takeaway

  • The benefit itself is modest; the caseload is enormous. $248 per person a month scaled across tens of millions of people is most of a $101.7 billion federal program — there's no large "waste" line to cut around.
  • The 2025 law is already outperforming its own projections — in the wrong direction. A 4.7 million-person, nearly-10% decline by March 2026 has already exceeded what forecast for the full year.
  • The near-miss wasn't a funding problem. had $6 billion in contingency funds available and chose not to use them; only a federal judge's order, not a new appropriation, kept November benefits intact.

Spending, benefit, and participation figures reflect the most recently published and data as of early-to-mid 2026 and are subject to revision as later months are reported. The state cost-share and administrative-funding provisions described take effect in FY2027 and FY2028 and had not yet applied as of this writing.

Sources

  • Economic Research Service, ": Key Statistics and Research" — FY2025 federal spending ($101.7B) and the 93% share going to benefits. ers.usda.gov
  • Food and Nutrition Service, FY2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustments — maximum monthly benefits by household size. fna.usda.gov
  • Congress.gov / (R48552) and Ballotpedia — the One Big Beautiful Bill Act's provisions, including the $186.7 billion 10-year federal spending reduction and expanded work requirements. congress.gov
  • Pew Charitable Trusts — the state cost-share and administrative-funding shifts (FY2027-2028) tied to payment error rates. pew.org
  • TheStreet, reporting 's February 2026 baseline — the 42 million (2025 average) and 39.3 million (2026 projected) participation figures. thestreet.com
  • Center on Budget and Policy Priorities — the March 2026 participation figure (37.4 million) and the 4.7 million/nearly-10% decline since the law's enactment. cbpp.org
  • Common Dreams, citing CBPP analysis — the roughly 808,000 children removed from rolls in states with public data. commondreams.org
  • News From The States — timeline of 's October 2025 guidance delaying November benefits and the states' lawsuit. newsfromthestates.com
  • CNBC — 's decision not to use available contingency funds and the federal court order to pay November benefits in full. cnbc.com
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